{"id":1306,"date":"2024-10-23T16:53:20","date_gmt":"2024-10-23T16:53:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.cinelytic.com\/?p=1306"},"modified":"2024-10-23T17:02:03","modified_gmt":"2024-10-23T17:02:03","slug":"october-insights-from-cinelytic-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cinelytic.com\/blog\/october-insights-from-cinelytic-2\/","title":{"rendered":"October Insights From Cinelytic – Family Friendly Offerings to the Rescue?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Throughout this year, we\u2019ve been revisiting the projections we made at the end of 2023 for the 2024 film slate. With the summer box office season now behind us and the holiday releases just ahead, we\u2019d like to provide an update on our latest accuracy metrics. As shown in the graphic below, our Domestic Box Office (DBO) projections have been impressively accurate, most notably tracking at around 93%<\/u><\/strong> for the year through September:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As we approach the final quarter of 2024, Cinelytic’s predictive platform is projecting a significant rebound at the box office, marking what may be the most lucrative Q4 since 2019\u2014before the impact of COVID. As shown in the graphic below, our projections point to a 26% increase in Q4 DBO compared to 2023, driven by a slate of four highly anticipated family-friendly releases from Walt Disney Studios, Paramount Pictures, and Universal Pictures. These films are poised to capitalize on established and beloved intellectual property (IP) and the upcoming holiday season to continue a trend of franchise success:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The period between November and December in 2023 also saw four major family-friendly releases (TROLLS BAND TOGETHER, WISH, WONKA and MIGRATION), but only two were based on well-known IPs. This year, however, all four of the biggest offerings coming in the final two months are linked to proven franchises or iconic properties: WICKED, MOANA 2, SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 3 and MUFASA: THE LION KING. Three of these films are highly anticipated follow-ups from successful franchises, while WICKED serves as a prequel to one of the most iconic films in history and an adaptation of the second highest grossing Broadway musical of all time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This conclusion is the result of running November and December\u2019s slate through Cinelytic\u2019s predictive forecasting platform, which leverages AI and utilizes 19 key attributes to project performance and ROI. For a deeper look at the individual projections, we\u2019ve also included a graphic highlighting the aforementioned four major upcoming releases. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We used public available information as the core assumptions for the predictive forecasts on our platform, which might differ from the actual parameters.These data points provide a glimpse into why these titles are poised to dominate, setting the stage for what would be a welcome Q4 finish:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

WICKED is projected to deliver a solid ROI of 252.6%. Despite its nature as a live-action musical and the absence of a major and proven movie star, it still benefits from the celebrity status of pop sensation Ariana Grande, and the film\u2019s ties to second most successful Broadway show in history and the 1939 classic THE WIZARD OF OZ should help it remain a strong contender at the box office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MOANA 2, originally slated to be a Disney+ series, was retooled as a theatrical sequel, positioning it for significant box office success. The first MOANA film earned US$249m in DBO in 2016, and with the return of Dwayne Johnson, this sequel is projected to achieve a strong 240.5% ROI. Fans of the original film and the enduring popularity of its characters are expected to fuel a successful theatrical run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The third installment of the SONIC THE HEDGEHOG franchise is expected to yield the highest return among the four, with a projected ROI of 331.2%. The franchise has steadily grown in popularity, with the first film grossing US$149m domestically just before COVID shutdowns and the sequel earning US$191m two years later. Cinelytic\u2019s projections suggest that the slightly more modest production budget (estimated around US$120m) will drive a significant ROI, making it a highly profitable entry in the series.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the other December offering, MUFASA: THE LION KING is poised to be the standout family-friendly release this year in terms of box office, with a projected ROI of 257.8%. As a prequel to 2019\u2019s THE LION KING\u2014which grossed a whopping US$544m domestically and US$1.7b worldwide\u2014this film carries massive expectations. Although the champion of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Jon Favreau, who directed the 2019 megahit predecessor is not involved in this project, a star-studded voice cast that includes Seth Rogen and Beyonc\u00e9 Knowles-Carter is expected to help draw large audiences and secure this title\u2019s place as the top family film of Q4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All to Say\u2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While 2024’s total box office haul has long been expected to fall short of 2023\u2019s numbers, the upcoming slate of family-friendly, IP-driven releases could provide a strong close to the year. With highly anticipated films ready to dominate theaters, it seems the reliable appeal of these established franchises will help drive a robust holiday box office season. This resurgence, projected to be the strongest year-end showing in recent memory, could provide momentum for the industry heading into 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Throughout this year, we\u2019ve been revisiting the projections we made at the end of 2023 for the 2024 film slate. With the summer box office season now behind us and the holiday releases just ahead,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":1314,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.cinelytic.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Final-Header-3.jpg","yoast_head":"\nOctober Insights From Cinelytic - Family Friendly Offerings to the Rescue? - Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cinelytic.com\/blog\/october-insights-from-cinelytic-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"October Insights From Cinelytic - Family Friendly Offerings to the Rescue? - Insights\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Throughout this year, we\u2019ve been revisiting the projections we made at the end of 2023 for the 2024 film slate. 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