{"id":1280,"date":"2024-09-04T15:28:05","date_gmt":"2024-09-04T15:28:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.cinelytic.com\/?p=1280"},"modified":"2024-09-04T16:58:04","modified_gmt":"2024-09-04T16:58:04","slug":"september-insights-from-cinelytic-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cinelytic.com\/blog\/september-insights-from-cinelytic-2\/","title":{"rendered":"September Insights From Cinelytic – 2024 TIFF special"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Throughout the year, Cinelytic has been closely monitoring the projections we released in November 2023 for the entire 2024 slate, where we estimated a total domestic gross of US$8.15b<\/em><\/strong>. Our early prediction model not only projects box office revenue but also forecasts home video and TV earnings, providing a valuable resource for the film industry. As illustrated in the graphic below, our domestic box office (DBO) predictions for 2024 have demonstrated remarkable accuracy, currently tracking at approximately 94%<\/strong> through the month of August:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

With the 49th annual Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) about to kickoff this week, we at Cinelytic decided to utilize this same forecasting tool and take a deep dive into a few upcoming releases that are garnering significant attention as \u201chot sales titles\u201d seeking US distribution at this year\u2019s ceremonies: EDEN, SPA WEEKEND, ON SWIFT HORSES and THE LIFE OF CHUCK. Our signature ROI forecasting, discussed later in these Insights, is particularly valuable for financiers, producers, and equity providers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, our sales estimates tool offers a different advantage\u2014enabling both buyers and sellers at festivals like TIFF to assess the per-territory value of a title across all media rights (box office, home video, TV, and ancillary). As shown in the graphic below, this tool is especially useful for those in a market setting who are working to determine the appropriate price for each territory\u2019s rights:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ron Howard has had a highly successful career, often focusing on big-budget films with star-studded casts. However, his recent projects, HILLBILLY ELEGY and THIRTEEN LIVES, have shifted towards more modest budgets around US$50m, and his upcoming survival thriller EDEN\u2014originally announced in October 2022 as ORIGIN OF SPECIES\u2014seems like it will likely follow that trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SPA WEEKEND is expected to cater to a different audience. It’s a female-led ensemble comedy starring Leslie Mann, brought to you by the creators of films like THE HANGOVER, THE CHANGE-UP, OFFICE CHRISTMAS PARTY, and 21 & OVER.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the arthouse front, Daniel Minahan\u2019s ON SWIFT HORSES is an adaptation of the novel of the same name. Set in the post-Korean War 1950s, it follows a married couple entangled in secrets and forbidden loves, and features two of today\u2019s most sought-after young actors in Daisy Edgar-Jones and Jacob Elordi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The final intriguing upcoming project is the latest from writer\/director Mike Flanagan. While Stephen King and Flanagan are both known for their horror chops, THE LIFE OF CHUCK will apparently lean into supernatural elements and explore existential questions about life. The project is based on King\u2019s novella and stars Tom Hiddleston, Mark Hamill and Chiwetel Ejiofor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecasting: Spotlight \u2013 SPA WEEKEND<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In order to provide sample of our detailed projections, we chose to highlight SPA WEEKEND and run it through our predictive tool to showcase what may lie ahead for these types of releases in terms of revenue. This tool takes into consideration 19 material input attributes to determine a full-performance waterfall, P&L and ROI. We estimated a budget of US$25m, an additional US$35m in total P&A costs and proposed a theatrical release strategy of 3,100 screens with Leslie Mann in the lead. The Cinelytic platform predicts a DBO of roughly US$46.6m, domestic gross revenues (BO, HV, TV) that total US$89.0m, and international gross revenues totaling US$56.0m:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Based on the anticipated global net revenues (including BO, HE, TV net of distribution fees and expenses), the film is expected to yield an ROI of 112.3% <\/strong>before the talent back-end, which can be substantial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Success on Streaming?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential box office performance of a title is no longer the sole factor driving sales negotiations at festivals like TIFF. With the growing prominence of streaming services (VOD\/SVOD) as a key revenue stream for festival films, we\u2019ve shifted our focus to analyzing audience consumption patterns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specifically, we examined the domestic and international streaming performance of three films that gained significant attention at last year\u2019s TIFF: AMERICAN FICTION, DREAM SCENARIO, and NEXT GOAL WINS. To do this, we utilized our innovative new tool, the \u201cCinelytic Streaming Store,\u201d which predicts and tracks digital content consumption on a per-title basis across various platforms and countries, offering valuable insights through a proprietary viewing score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In terms of box office performance, AMERICAN FICTION stood out as a successful outlier, grossing over US$21.1m DBO. Meanwhile, DREAM SCENARIO and NEXT GOAL WINS brought in US$5.7m and US$6.7m, respectively. The early and consistent awards buzz, along with positive word of mouth, likely contributed to the success of AMERICAN FICTION, which ultimately earned five nominations and one win at the 96th Academy Awards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The graphic above shows that in the territories highlighted, both AMERICAN FICTION and DREAM SCENARIO performed well on streaming, whereas NEXT GOAL WINS lagged significantly, except in Japan and Italy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

AMERICAN FICTION resonated with audiences interested in socially relevant content that incorporates humor and performed well in theaters as well as at home. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

DREAM SCENARIO, outperformed on streaming vs theatrical with its unique blend of surreal comedy and dark satire \u2014 Nicolas Cage is consistently performing well on streaming, which boosted viewership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, NEXT GOAL WINS, with its niche focus on a lesser-known and localized sports story, was not able to attract streaming audiences to make up for the low DBO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All to Say\u2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While predicting the performance of feature films isn\u2019t an exact science, and there\u2019s no surefire formula for success, Cinelytic is designed to help you make smarter, more informed decisions. At TIFF 2024, films like EDEN, SPA WEEKEND, ON SWIFT HORSES, and THE LIFE OF CHUCK each present unique opportunities and challenges in finding the best release strategies. With Cinelytic, you can accurately determine the right price point for each title, along with the most effective P&A and distribution plan. Aligning these factors effectively can pave the way to a strong ROI. Whether a film is headed for a wide theatrical release or a direct-to-home premiere, we take the uncertainty out of the equation by providing you with proven analytics and sound business insights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As TIFF 2024 offers a prime opportunity for distributors to acquire standout films, Cinelytic gives you the tools to make the best deals at the right price.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Throughout the year, Cinelytic has been closely monitoring the projections we released in November 2023 for the entire 2024 slate, where we estimated a total domestic gross of US$8.15b. 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